# Capstone #4 Submission Package

## Project
**Optimizing Hospital Resource Allocation Using Artificial Intelligence and Predictive Analytics**  
Author: **Sara Seri**

## Start Here
Open `01_Report/Sara_Seri_Capstone4_Executive_Summary.pdf` for the concise presentation-ready overview.

For the complete analytical working report, open:
`01_Report/Sara_Seri_Capstone4_Complete_Working_Report.pdf`

## Folder Contents

### 01_Report
- Executive summary in Word and PDF
- Phase 1: Data Understanding report in Word and PDF
- Phase 2: Forecasting report in Word and PDF
- Phase 3: Optimization report in Word and PDF
- Combined 19-page analytical working report PDF

### 02_Excel
- Phase 1 data-understanding workbook
- Phase 2 forecasting-results workbook
- Phase 3 optimization-results workbook

### 03_Python
- `01_data_preparation.py`
- `02_forecasting_models.py`
- `03_resource_optimization.py`
- Python requirements and reproduction instructions

### 04_Data
- Original CDC/NHSN hospital respiratory dataset
- Clean state/territory modeling panel

### 05_Figures
- Fourteen high-resolution figures used in the reports

### 06_Supporting_Tables
- Data quality, descriptive statistics, model metrics, predictions,
  feature importance, optimization assumptions, sensitivity analysis,
  and stress-test CSV files

## Main Results
- Original dataset: 20,770 weekly observations and 322 original variables
- Clean modeling panel: 17,360 state/territory-week observations
- Selected forecasting model: XGBoost
- Average XGBoost RMSE: 2.888 occupancy percentage points
- Average XGBoost MAE: 1.805 percentage points
- Average XGBoost R-squared: 0.907
- 80/20 test RMSE: 2.593
- 80/20 test R-squared: 0.924

## Optimization Scenarios
- Typical demand: 0 surge beds, 0 additional nurses per shift
- Elevated demand: 4 surge beds, 1 additional nurse per shift
- High demand: 24 surge beds, 5 additional nurses per shift
- Critical demand: 37 surge beds, 8 additional nurses per shift

## Important Academic Note
The CDC data are aggregated by jurisdiction. Hospital-level bed, staffing, and
financial inputs were not available. The optimization therefore uses a clearly
identified standardized 500-bed reference-hospital scenario. These inputs must be
replaced with facility-specific values before real operational deployment.

## Suggested Upload Set
For a concise submission, upload:
1. `Sara_Seri_Capstone4_Complete_Working_Report.pdf`
2. The three Excel workbooks in `02_Excel`
3. `03_Python` folder or the complete ZIP package

The Word files are included for editing and incorporation into the final class template.
